{"id":9575,"date":"2014-02-26T10:25:30","date_gmt":"2014-02-26T18:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qgp.ykq.mybluehost.me\/cinephiled\/?p=9575"},"modified":"2014-02-26T13:31:48","modified_gmt":"2014-02-26T21:31:48","slug":"2014-oscar-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cinephiled.com\/2014-oscar-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"2014 Oscar Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 86th<\/sup> Annual Academy Awards will air this Sunday on ABC at 7 PM EST\/4 PM PST. Ellen DeGeneres hosts the ceremony, which will include performances by U2, Bette Midler, Pink, Idina Menzel, Karen O and Pharrell Williams. Fancy dresses will be worn. Crying will be inevitable. The ceremony will run long.<\/p>\n

If your family is anything like mine, the annual Oscar pool is a highly competitive endeavor. The winner gets bragging rights for a year plus the occasional fabulous prize. When people ask me how I came to own the entire DVD boxed set of The Twilight Zone<\/i>, I proudly tell them that it\u2019s because years ago I correctly predicted the winner of Best Documentary Short.<\/p>\n

24 awards will be handed out on Sunday night. Here\u2019s who I think will win them.<\/p>\n

Why should you trust me? Well for one I\u2019ve seen all the movies. (Yes, including the shorts.) Two, I\u2019ve watched all the awards shows so far. (Yes, including the BAFTAs and the NAACP Image Awards.) Three, I care about this stuff way too much.<\/p>\n

I hope my picks help you win a fabulous prize. And if that fabulous prize happens to be cake, please send me a picture so I can imagine myself eating a slice.<\/p>\n

\"12_years_a_slave\"<\/a>BEST PICTURE<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b>12 Years a Slave<\/b><\/p>\n

The race is between three films: American Hustle <\/i>took the Golden Globe for Best Comedy and the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. Enthusiasm for American Hustle <\/i>was high in January, but has subsided in recent weeks. A movie about an undercover operation in the late ’70s already won Best Picture last year. The film\u2019s comic elements make it seem slight in the face of two weighty dramas about survival against all odds. I don\u2019t think it will win.<\/p>\n

Gravity <\/i>is a stunning achievement and a lock to win most of the technical categories, but 12 Years a Slave <\/i>is one of the finest films ever made about slavery in America. Perhaps the finest. The movie will be taught in schools decades from now. It makes abstract history horrifyingly personal.<\/p>\n

In 2006, another breakthrough drama about a minority group was the front-runner against a film with Sandra Bullock playing an unlikely role. The movies were Brokeback Mountain <\/i>and Crash<\/i>. We all know how that ended, but I don\u2019t think history will repeat itself.<\/p>\n

Why? The Academy loves voting for complex films about race in America. Since Crash<\/i>, they\u2019ve heaped praise on Precious, The Help, Django Unchained, Beasts of the Southern Wild, <\/i>and Lincoln. <\/i>Who, in good conscience, could vote against slavery?<\/p>\n

It might be a slim margin, but 12 Years a Slave <\/i>will take home the night\u2019s top prize.<\/p>\n

\"Alfonso<\/a>BEST DIRECTOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n \u2013 Gravity<\/b><\/p>\n

Last year Ang Lee took home the Best Director trophy for the CGI-heavy Life of Pi<\/i> while Argo <\/i>took home Best Picture. A similar split will happen this year. Cuar\u00f3n\u2019s combination of incredible technology with old school storytelling is an irresistible mix. He will become the first Hispanic director to win.<\/p>\n

\"Matthew-McConaughey250\"<\/a><\/b>BEST ACTOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Matthew McConaughey \u2013 Dallas Buyers Club<\/b><\/p>\n

Not enough people saw Bruce Dern in Nebraska <\/i>and while Leonardo DiCaprio is gaining some late momentum for The Wolf of Wall Street, <\/i>I just don\u2019t think he\u2019ll win for a movie that so many people hated. That leaves two serious contenders:<\/p>\n

Chiwetel Ejiofor is the soul of 12 Years a Slave<\/i>. The British actor has delivered terrific performances in a wide variety of films: From Kinky Boots <\/i>to Dirty Pretty Things. Serenity <\/i>to Love Actually<\/i>. Any other year he would\u2019ve been a lock, but unfortunately for Mr. Ejiofor, he\u2019s coming in at the tail end of Matthew McConaughey\u2019s rebirth from the romantic comedy ashes.<\/p>\n

It began in 2012 when McConaughey tweaked his persona in a fearless performance as an aging male stripper in Magic Mike<\/i>.\u00a0 The positive upswing continued in the spring of 2013 with a terrific supporting turn in the indie drama Mud. <\/i>Then came Dallas Buyers Club<\/i>. The film was slow to start with audiences, but it picked up at just the right time. Having McConaughey doing terrific work every Sunday night on HBO\u2019s True Detective <\/i>helps too.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s McConaughey\u2019s time. A win is inevitable. The bongos are all but forgotten.<\/p>\n

\"Blue-Jasmine\"<\/a>BEST ACTRESS<\/b><\/p>\n

Cate Blanchett \u2013 Blue Jasmine<\/b><\/p>\n

No contest. The Australian actress will take home her second Oscar for her portrayal of a high society woman descending into madness. The bad press that hounded Blue Jasmine <\/i>director Woody Allen throughout February won\u2019t transfer to her.<\/p>\n

\"Jared<\/a>BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Jared Leto \u2013 Dallas Buyers Club<\/b><\/p>\n

Jordan Catalano is about to win an Oscar, guys. And deservedly so. Leto gives heart and grit to a difficult role. He\u2019s absolutely heartbreaking.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Lupita<\/a>BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS<\/b><\/p>\n

Lupita Nyong\u2019o \u2013 12 Years a Slave<\/b><\/p>\n

Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong\u2019o have pretty much split this category across the major award shows, but Nyong\u2019o should end up with the Oscar.<\/p>\n

Lawrence\u2019s turn in American Hustle <\/i>is a textbook love it or hate it performance. It\u2019s so big and weird and different from the rest of the movie that it really stands out. But does that sparkle come at the expense of the character\u2019s humanity? It depends on who you talk to. Ultimately, I don\u2019t think voters will want to reward Lawrence with back-to-back Oscars. She\u2019s only 23. She has decades of awards ahead of her.<\/p>\n

Lupita Nyong\u2019o is the breakout star of the Oscar season. She\u2019s campaigning like a pro: Eloquent acceptance speeches thanking all the right people, superb fashion choices and a charming talk show demeanor. And then there\u2019s that performance. Nyong\u2019o gives enormous depth and complexity to a role that could\u2019ve been an unfortunate victim and nothing more. The discrepancy between Nyong\u2019o\u2019s cheery public persona and the grimness of the role only shows how great she is.<\/p>\n

Nyong\u2019o will edge out Lawrence and take home the Oscar for her first film role.<\/p>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY<\/b><\/p>\n

Spike Jonze \u2013 Her<\/b><\/p>\n

The writer\/director will take home his first Oscar for his clever mix of romantic drama and sci-fi allegory.<\/p>\n

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY<\/b><\/p>\n

John Ridley \u2013 12 Years a Slave<\/b><\/p>\n

While I\u2019m hoping with every bone in my body for Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke to upset with Before Midnight<\/i>, the only place that would actually happen is in my dreams.<\/p>\n

Ridley took a first-person autobiography from over 150 years ago and turned it into a sweeping narrative tale with a dozen full-fledged characters. He should pull off the win.<\/p>\n

\"Captain<\/a>BEST EDITING<\/b><\/p>\n

Captain Phillips<\/b><\/p>\n

The film won the important American Cinema Editors Award. The editing gives Captain Phillips <\/i>urgency, a remarkable feat given that most audience members know the outcome already. It\u2019s a great movie and it should win something. Voters will likely see their best chance to reward it here.<\/p>\n

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN<\/b><\/p>\n

The Great Gatsby<\/b><\/p>\n

While most people thought this Gatsby <\/i>adaptation was less than great, there\u2019s no denying it was the most sumptuous looking movie released last year. Who wouldn\u2019t want to stop by for the party of a lifetime?<\/p>\n

BEST COSTUMES<\/b><\/p>\n

American Hustle<\/b><\/p>\n

Michael Wilkinson perfectly captured the glitz and grime of the late ’70s and early ’80s. The clothes really made the characters. Let\u2019s hope he thanks Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence for their fearless cleavage in his speech.<\/p>\n

\"Bad<\/a>BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING<\/b><\/p>\n

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa<\/b><\/p>\n

Yes I really do think it will happen. The make-up in Dallas Buyers Club <\/i>isn\u2019t as dramatic and no one wants to vote for The Lone Ranger<\/i>. This would\u2019ve been a race if American Hustle <\/i>were in the running, but for some reason it was snubbed.<\/p>\n

The whole concept of Bad Grandpa <\/i>depended upon unsuspecting people believing 42-year-old Johnny Knoxville was an 86-year-old man. Say what you will about the movie, but the transformation is worthy of Oscar gold.<\/p>\n

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY<\/b><\/p>\n

Gravity<\/b><\/p>\n

You put on the 3-D glasses. You felt like you were actually in space. End of story.<\/p>\n

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS<\/b><\/p>\n

Gravity<\/b><\/p>\n

Is this even a question?<\/p>\n

\"Gravity\"<\/a>BEST SOUND EDITING<\/b><\/p>\n

Gravity<\/b><\/p>\n

Gravity <\/i>felt like it took place in space because of the visuals AND the sound.<\/p>\n

BEST SOUND MIXING<\/b><\/p>\n

Gravity<\/b><\/p>\n

You could hear every individual bullet in Lone Survivor<\/i>, but the technical momentum behind Gravity <\/i>should ensure another win for the space drama.<\/p>\n

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE<\/b><\/p>\n

Her<\/b><\/p>\n

This one\u2019s a wild card. Gravity <\/i>is the obvious choice, but I think there\u2019s a good chance voters will go outside the box for this one. Philomena\u2019<\/i>s Alexandre Desplat has been nominated six times but has never won and is very respected in the industry. Her\u2019<\/i>s William Butler and Owen Pallett have indie cred. Butler is a member of acclaimed Canadian rock group Arcade Fire. Pallett is the band\u2019s string arranger.<\/p>\n

I think the edge goes to Her. <\/i>The movie is infused with melancholy music that enhances the film\u2019s overall tone. It could make a surprise triumph over Sandra and Dame Judi.<\/p>\n

\"Frozen\"<\/a>BEST ORIGINAL SONG<\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cLet It Go\u201d from Frozen<\/b><\/p>\n

Pharrell\u2019s \u201cHappy\u201d is making a late surge on radio and the Billboard charts, but it doesn\u2019t have much to do with Despicable Me 2. <\/i>Pharrell will have to be content with the bundle of Grammys he won in January.<\/p>\n

U2 took the Golden Globe because the Hollywood Foreign Press loves celebrities. But let\u2019s be honest: \u201cOrdinary Love\u201d from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom <\/i>is a not so great song from a not so great movie about a great man.<\/p>\n

Frozen <\/i>is the most successful animated musical since the Disney heyday of the early ’90s. \u201cLet It Go\u201d is the film\u2019s best song. It currently sits at number 18 on the Billboard Hot 100. It has hundreds and hundreds of covers on YouTube. It\u2019s no contest.<\/p>\n

Writer Robert Lopez will become the youngest person to EGOT. He is 39.<\/p>\n

\"Great<\/a>BEST FOREIGN FILM<\/b><\/p>\n

The Great Beauty (Italy)<\/b><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a close race between The Great Beauty <\/i>from Italy and The Broken Circle Breakdown <\/i>from Belgium. Circle <\/i>was a hit at last year\u2019s Tribeca Film Festival, and it\u2019s a very unique: A non-linear romantic drama with tons of Belgian bluegrass music. But it got a super brief release and The Great Beauty <\/i>has been an art house hit for months.<\/p>\n

The Great Beauty <\/i>is being called a La Dolce Vita <\/i>for the modern age. And rightfully so. It should take home the statue, Italy\u2019s first since Life is Beautiful <\/i>in 1998.<\/p>\n

\"Frozen<\/a><\/b>BEST ANIMATED FILM<\/b><\/p>\n

Frozen<\/b><\/p>\n

Hayao Miyazaki\u2019s career last film The Wind Rises<\/i> wasn\u2019t his greatest. That was the only possible upset. The icy Disney juggernaut will dominate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"actofkilling\"<\/a><\/b>BEST DOCUMENTARY<\/b><\/p>\n

The Act of Killing<\/b><\/p>\n

Much like Best Picture, there are three titles that could legitimately take the prize. The Square <\/i>debuted on Netflix in late January. It pulled an upset at the DGA Awards in early February. But I don\u2019t think enough of the voting block has seen it for it to take the Oscar.<\/p>\n

The Act of Killing <\/i>and 20 Feet from Stardom<\/i> were the documentaries no one could stop talking about last summer. The two couldn\u2019t be more different. The former is a harrowing look at the modern repercussions of genocide that occurred in Indonesia during the 1960s. The latter is a charming survey of challenges facing background singers hoping to break into the music industry as solo stars.<\/p>\n

I think The Act of Killing<\/i>\u2019s audacious angle on its material will ultimately triumph over the singers, but the margin will be very slim.<\/p>\n

\"Lady<\/a>BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT<\/b><\/p>\n

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life<\/b><\/p>\n

The Lady in Number 6 <\/i>follows the incredible life of Alice Herz Sommers, who until her death last Sunday at age 110, was the world\u2019s oldest living Holocaust survivor.<\/p>\n

Facing Fear <\/i>follows the equally incredible story of a gay man and the reformed skinhead who attacked him as they work together for the greater social good.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a toss up between the two, although personally I think Prison Terminal <\/i>is actually the best movie. I\u2019ll give the edge to Alice.<\/p>\n

\"helium\"<\/a><\/b>BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT<\/b><\/p>\n

Helium<\/b><\/p>\n

The Academy always stacks this category with movies about children in peril: There are children escaping their abusive father. There are children turned into soldiers and forced to kill. There are children running late for a wedding because their bohemian parents can\u2019t keep time.<\/p>\n

Children dying of cancer beat all of those though. Helium <\/i>is the perfect balance between light and dark. It\u2019s a funny take on a very serious subject. It\u2019s sweet, it\u2019s unique, and it has great special effects.<\/p>\n

\"Mr<\/a>BEST ANIMATED SHORT<\/b><\/p>\n

Mr. Hublot<\/b><\/p>\n

Get a Horse! <\/i>played before Frozen <\/i>and stars Mickey Mouse. There\u2019s a good chance the movie will win on name recognition alone.<\/p>\n

But if you actually watch all five shorts, the clear winner is Mr. Hublot<\/i>. The animation is stunning, it tells a terrific story with no dialogue, and it has an adorable robot dog. Here\u2019s hoping the robot dog triumphs over the more famous mouse.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Who do you think will win big on Sunday night? Post your picks in the comments below.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 86th Annual Academy Awards will air this Sunday on ABC at 7 PM EST\/4 PM PST. Ellen DeGeneres hosts the ceremony, which will include performances by U2, Bette Midler, Pink, Idina Menzel, Karen O and Pharrell Williams. Fancy dresses will be worn. Crying will be inevitable. The ceremony will run long. If your family […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1210,18,99],"tags":[632,1064,166,3495,650,1357,619,88,727,1209],"yoast_head":"\n2014 Oscar Predictions - Cinephiled<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Who will win big at the 2014 Academy Awards? 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